According to the survey results of American cotton planting intention in 2023/24 previously released by the National Cotton Council (NCC), the area of American cotton planting intention in the next year is 11.419 million acres (69.313 million acres), a year-on-year decrease of 17%. At present, some relevant industry organizations in the United States speculate that the cotton planting area in the United States will be significantly reduced in the next year, and the specific value is still under calculation. The agency said that its calculation results of the previous year were 98% similar to the expected cotton planting area released by USDA at the end of March.
The agency said that income is the key factor affecting farmers’ planting decisions in the new year. Specifically, the recent cotton price has dropped by nearly 50% from the high in May last year, but the price of corn and soybeans has declined slightly. At present, the price ratio of cotton to corn and soybeans is at the lowest level since 2012, and the income from planting corn is higher. In addition, inflationary pressures and farmers’ concerns that the United States might fall into economic recession this year also affected their planting decisions, because clothing, as consumer goods, is likely to be part of consumer spending cuts in the process of economic recession, so cotton prices may continue to be under pressure.
In addition, the agency pointed out that the calculation of the total cotton yield in the new year should not refer to the unit yield in 2022/23, because the high abandonment rate also pushed up the unit yield, and the cotton farmers abandoned the cotton fields that could not grow smoothly, leaving the most productive part.
Post time: Feb-24-2023