The rainfall during the June September rainy season is likely to be 96% of the long-term average. The report states that the El Ni ñ o phenomenon is usually caused by warm water in the equatorial Pacific and may affect the second half of this year’s monsoon season.
India’s vast water resources rely on rainfall, and hundreds of millions of farmers rely on monsoons to nourish their land every year. Abundant rainfall may boost the production of crops such as rice, rice, soybeans, corn, and sugarcane, lower food prices, and help the government lower inflation rates. The Indian meteorological department predicts that the monsoon will return to normal this year, which may alleviate concerns about the impact on agricultural production and economic growth.
The forecast by the Indian meteorological department is inconsistent with the outlook predicted by Skymet. Skymet predicted on Monday that the Indian monsoon will be below average this year, with rainfall from June to September being 94% of the long-term average.
The error margin of the Indian meteorological department’s weather forecast is 5%. Rainfall is normal between 96% -104% of the historical average. Last year’s monsoon rainfall was 106% of the average level, which increased grain production for 2022-23.
Anubti Sahay, Chief Economist of South Asia at Standard Chartered, said that according to the probability predicted by the Indian meteorological department, the risk of reduced rainfall still exists. The monsoon usually enters from the southern state of Kerala in the first week of June and then moves northward, covering most of the country.
Post time: Apr-17-2023